Penn Sports Analytics Reading Group - Spring 2021

2. In-Season Prediction of Batting Averages (Brown, 2008)

• Brown, 2008 - In-Season Prediction of Batting Averages: A Field Test of Empirical Bayes and Bayes Methodologies

• Ryan’s Notes - Brown 2008 Setup

• Ryan’s Notes - James Stein Estimator Derivation

• Ryan’s Notes - Parametric Empirical Bayes Estimator (MLE) Derivation

• Ryan’s Notes - Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Estimator Derivation

1. Bradley Terry & ELO

• Stanford Stat 200 - Intro to Bradley-Terry Model

• Szczecinski and Djebbi - Understanding and Pushing the Limits of the Elo Rating Algorithm

• Aldous - Elo Ratings and the Sports Model: a Neglected Topic in Applied Probability?

• Ryan’s Notes - Bradley-Terry Model & Logistic Regression

• Hunter - MM Algorithms for Generalized Bradley-Terry Models