Selected publications/pre-prints

• Brill, RS, Yurko, R, and Wyner, AJ. “Analytics, have some humility: a statistical view of fourth-down decision making.”
  • The American Statistician, 2025 (pdf) (arXiv)
  • talk, slides at NESSIS 2023
    
    
• Brill, RS and Wyner, AJ. “Introducing Grid WAR: Rethinking WAR for starting pitchers.”
  • Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2024 (pdf) (arXiv)
  • talk, slides at SABR 2024
  • Grid WAR Standings at gridwar.xyz
    
    
• Brill, RS and Wyner, AJ. “The Loser’s Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function.”
  • The American Statistician, 2025 (pdf) (arXiv)
  • talk, slides at CMSAC 2024
    
    
• Brill, RS and Wyner, AJ “Why Great Putting is Mostly Luck: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance.”
  • arXiv, 2025
    
  • Please enjoy these related lectures on Empirical Bayes and Shrinkage Estimation
    
    
• Brill, RS, Wyner, AJ, and Barnett, IJ. “Entropy-based strategies for multi-bracket pools.”
  • Entropy, 2024 (pdf) (arXiv)
    
    
• Brill, RS, Deshpande, SK, and Wyner, AJ. “A Bayesian analysis of the time through the order penalty in baseball.”
  • Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2023 (pdf) (arXiv)
  • Please enjoy this related lecture: Models Do What They’re Told
    
    
• Brill, RS, Jacobson, C, Lipitz, J, and Pipping, J. “Safety Entropy.” NFL Big Data Bowl, 2025. Finalist.
  • Kaggle writeup, slides
    
    

More papers

• Deriving the Black-Scholes Formula

• Predicting the Quarterback MVP

• Some statistics in sports papers that I enjoy

• Statistics via Sports