Selected publications/pre-prints

• Brill, RS, Yurko, R, and Wyner, AJ. “Analytics, have some humility: a statistical view of fourth-down decision making.”

  • The American Statistician, 2025 (pdf) (arXiv)
  • talk, slides at NESSIS 2023

• Brill, RS and Wyner, AJ. “Introducing Grid WAR: Rethinking WAR for starting pitchers.”

  • Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2024 (pdf) (arXiv)
  • talk, slides at SABR 2024
  • Grid WAR Standings at gridwar.xyz

• Brill, RS and Wyner, AJ. “The Loser’s Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function.”

  • The American Statistician, 2025 (pdf) (arXiv)
  • talk, slides at CMSAC 2024

• Brill, RS and Wyner, AJ “Why Great Putting is Mostly Luck: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance.”

  • arXiv, 2025
  • Please enjoy these related lectures on Empirical Bayes and Shrinkage Estimation

• Brill, RS, Wyner, AJ, and Barnett, IJ. “Entropy-based strategies for multi-bracket pools.”

  • Entropy, 2024 (pdf) (arXiv)

• Brill, RS, Deshpande, SK, and Wyner, AJ. “A Bayesian analysis of the time through the order penalty in baseball.”

  • Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2023 (pdf) (arXiv)
  • Please enjoy this related lecture: Models Do What They’re Told

• Brill, RS, Jacobson, C, Lipitz, J, and Pipping, J. “Safety Entropy.” NFL Big Data Bowl, 2025. Finalist.

  • Kaggle writeup, slides

More papers

• Deriving the Black-Scholes Formula

• Predicting the Quarterback MVP

• Some statistics in sports papers that I enjoy

• Statistics via Sports