Some Statistics in Sports Papers
Baseball
In-Season Prediction of Batting Averages (Brown, 2008)
Ryan’s Notes - Parametric Empirical Bayes Estimator (MLE) Derivation
Ryan’s Notes - Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Estimator Derivation
Pitch Framing
American Football
Finding Value in the NFL Draft
PFF WAR
Causal Inference
A good overview of causal inference
A good example of applying causal inference to sports
Sports Betting & Information Theory
Kelly Criterion & Log-Optimal Betting
Ryan’s Slides - Horse Racing, Kelly Betting, and Unintuitive Bets
Ryan’s Notes - Applying Kelly Criteron to the 2021 March Madness Elite 8
Wyner and Rising, 2012 - Partial Kelly Portfolios and Shrinkage Estimators