Some Statistics in Sports Papers

Baseball

In-Season Prediction of Batting Averages (Brown, 2008)

• Brown, 2008 - In-Season Prediction of Batting Averages: A Field Test of Empirical Bayes and Bayes Methodologies

• Ryan’s Notes - Brown 2008 Setup

• Ryan’s Notes - James Stein Estimator Derivation

• Ryan’s Notes - Parametric Empirical Bayes Estimator (MLE) Derivation

• Ryan’s Notes - Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Estimator Derivation

• Rahul’s Code - Implementing the Estimators from Brown 2008

Pitch Framing

• Deshpande & Wyner, 2017 - A Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pitch Framing

American Football

Finding Value in the NFL Draft

• Massey & Thaler, 2013 - The Loser’s Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft

• Ryan’s Notes - Massey & Thaler 2013

PFF WAR

• Eric Eager, 2020 - PFF WAR: Modeling Player Value in American Football

• PFF Player Grades

• Ryan’s Notes - PFF WAR

Causal Inference

A good overview of causal inference

• Stuart 2010 - Matching methods for causal inference: A review and a look forward

A good example of applying causal inference to sports

• Gibbs, Elmore, Fosdick 2021 - The Causal Effect of a Timeout at Stopping an Opposing Run in the NBA

Sports Betting & Information Theory

Kelly Criterion & Log-Optimal Betting

• Kelly, 1956 - A New Interpretation of Information Rate

• Ryan’s Notes - Kelly Criterion Derivation (Case: No Rake)

• Ryan’s Notes - Kelly Criterion Derivation (Case: Rake)

• Ryan’s Slides - Horse Racing, Kelly Betting, and Unintuitive Bets

• Ryan’s Notes - Applying Kelly Criteron to the 2021 March Madness Elite 8

• Example of a Kelly-Optimal and Negative EV Bet

• Wyner and Rising, 2012 - Partial Kelly Portfolios and Shrinkage Estimators

Horse Race Betting

• The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code

• Benter, 1994 - Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report

Shannon Entropy as a Measure of the Uncertainty of a Distribution (Shannon, 1948)

• Shannon, 1948 - A Mathematical Theory of Communication (Pages 10-13 + Appendix 2)