Some statistics in sports papers that I enjoy

Bayesian statistics in baseball

• Yee & Deshpande, 2023 - Evaluating Plate Discipline in Major League Baseball with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

• Deshpande & Wyner, 2017 - A Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pitch Framing

• Jensen, Shirley, & Wyner, 2009 - Bayesball: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Evaluating Fielding in Major League Baseball

• Brown, 2008 - In-Season Prediction of Batting Averages: A Field Test of Empirical Bayes and Bayes Methodologies

  • Stigler, 1988 - A Galtonian Perspective on Shrinkage Estimators

  • Ryan’s Notes - Brown 2008 Setup

  • Ryan’s Notes - James Stein Estimator Derivation

  • Ryan’s Notes - Parametric Empirical Bayes Estimator (MLE) Derivation

  • Ryan’s Notes - Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Estimator Derivation

  • Rahul’s Code - Implementing the Estimators from Brown 2008

Tracking Data

• Nguyen, Yurko, and Matthews 2023 - Here Comes the STRAIN: Analyzing Defensive Pass Rush in American Football with Player Tracking Data

American Football

• Massey & Thaler, 2013 - The Loser’s Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft

  • Ryan’s Notes - Massey & Thaler 2013
    

• Eric Eager, 2020 - PFF WAR: Modeling Player Value in American Football

  • PFF Player Grades
    

Cross-sport analysis

• Lopez, Matthews, and Baumer 2018 - How often does the best team win? A unified approach to understanding randomness in North American sport

Sports Betting & Information Theory

• Kelly, 1956 - A New Interpretation of Information Rate

  • Shannon, 1948 - A Mathematical Theory of Communication (Pages 10-13 + Appendix 2)

  • Ryan’s Notes - Kelly Criterion Derivation (Case: No Rake)

  • Ryan’s Notes - Kelly Criterion Derivation (Case: Rake)

  • Ryan’s Slides - Horse Racing, Kelly Betting, and Unintuitive Bets

  • Ryan’s Notes - Applying Kelly Criteron to the 2021 March Madness Elite 8

  • Example of a Kelly-Optimal and Negative EV Bet

  • Wyner and Rising, 2012 - Partial Kelly Portfolios and Shrinkage Estimators

  • The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code

  • Benter, 1994 - Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report

Causal Inference in Sports

A good overview of causal inference:

• Stuart 2010 - Matching methods for causal inference: A review and a look forward

A good example of applying causal inference to sports:

• Gibbs, Elmore, Fosdick 2021 - The Causal Effect of a Timeout at Stopping an Opposing Run in the NBA